← All instruments — the full set 1982
high 3.91 · low -1.88 · now 0.77 · 5 recessions shaded 2026
F16 · THE CURVE THE FED'S RECESSION RESEARCH PREFERS
Term spread, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury
0.77
CALM ROBUST z 0.37 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-06-05
Where it sits: near the middle of its last decade.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- the curve the Fed's recession research prefers
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its last decade — at the 59th percentile of its last decade.
- z vs. its window
- 0.37 (strain side: down). 2,496 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95 — Inversion (negative) is the strain side. Complements the 2s10s (F7); the 10y–3m is the spread NY Fed recession models use.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 2.45 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 0.29 | ▲ EXTREME |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | -0.52 | ▲ EXTREME |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 0.74 | ◆ WATCH |
Questions it helps answer
- The Debt — Can the debt be carried — and who is carrying it?
- Money & Policy — How tight is money, and how fast is credit growing?