← All instruments: the full set 1961
high 5.28 · low -1.28 · now 0.80 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
F6 · COMPENSATION TO HOLD DURATION
10-year term premium (Adrian–Crump–Moench)
0.80
CALM ROBUST z -0.47 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-10-19
Where it sits: lower than ~62% of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- compensation to hold duration
- Where it sits
- lower than ~62% of its full record: at the 38th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -0.47 (strain side: up). 16,301 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95: Model-based estimate (ACM), not a market quote; disclosed on Methodology.
Where it comes from
NYFED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 1.63 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | -0.57 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | -1.33 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | -1.21 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Debt : Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?