← All instruments — the full set 1976
high 2.87 · low -1.98 · now 0.38 · 6 recessions shaded 2026
F7 · CURVE RELATIONSHIP
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (2s10s)
0.38
CALM ROBUST z 0.03 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-06-05
Where it sits: near the middle of its last decade.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- curve relationship
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its last decade — at the 48th percentile of its last decade.
- z vs. its window
- 0.03 (strain side: down). 2,496 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 1.69 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 0.19 | ▲ EXTREME |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | -0.03 | ◆ WATCH |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 0.48 | ◆ WATCH |
Questions it helps answer
- The Ledge — How high is the market — and what is under it?