M1 · VALUATION ALTITUDE

Corporate equities to GDP (the Buffett indicator)

232.74

EXTREME ROBUST z 2.67 DRS 95 quarterly as of 2025-10-01

Where it sits: higher than ~99% of its last 30 years — near the top of its record.

The full history

1947 high 232.74 · low 32.22 · now 232.74 · 12 recessions shaded 2025

What it measures: valuation altitude
Where it sits: higher than ~99% of its last 30 years — near the top of its record — at the 99th percentile of its last 30 years.
z vs. its window: 2.67 (strain side: up). 118 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95 — Computed: nonfinancial corporate equities outstanding (Fed Z.1, NCBEILQ027S) over nominal GDP, percent. Both inputs official, quarterly since 1947. Trend-dominated: a steadily trending series always prints high-z eventually; the state reads how far along the trend, vs the recent decade. Disclosed.

DERIVED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.