Where it sits: higher than ~80% of its last decade.
The full history
2014
high 121,394 · low 184.00 · now 63,217 · 1 recession shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
speculative appetite
Where it sits
higher than ~80% of its last decade — at the 80th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
0.90 (strain side: up). 3,648 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST — a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95 — The froth thermometer: the strain side is declared UP — this tile reads speculative altitude, not market health. A crash shows up in the fast tells; the climb shows up here.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
no data — series began later
Q4-2018 selloff
4,034
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
9,710
◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020
6,583
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Ledge — How high is the market — and what is under it?