R1 · PAYEMS × SP500

Jobs vs. market reaction

Good news should lift equities. When strong payrolls sell stocks off, the market is trading the Fed, not the economy.

BEHAVING z = 0.80 PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-08-07

toward the strained side: above ~66% of its history

The dysfunction statistic, full history

Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction: the relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.

PAYEMS

1939 high 159,075 · low 29,923 · now 159,075 · 13 recessions shaded 2026

SP500

2016 high 7,737 · low 2,112 · now 7,719 · 1 recession shaded 2026

Correlation today (r): 0.0849
z vs. its own history: 0.8 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation (effective N ≈ 5 independent windows, from 94 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed: z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 2 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
Confidence: PLAUSIBLE: Surprise is proxied against the series' own trend (revised data, not real-time consensus); disclosed on Methodology.