Gold should fall as real yields rise — holding it costs more when safe real returns improve. When gold climbs WITH real yields, the market is pricing debasement or sovereign risk, not opportunity cost.
BEHAVING z = -0.03 ROBUST as of 2026-06-04
within its normal range (above ~50% of its history)
The dysfunction statistic, full history
Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction — the
relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.
The two series it watches
GOLD_LBMA
1968
high 5,278 · low 35.01 · now 4,463 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
DFII10
2003
high 3.06 · low -1.17 · now 2.11 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
How it is scored
Correlation today (r)
-0.0902
z vs. its own history
-0.03 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation — effective N ≈ 102.5 independent windows (from 5,686 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 5 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
Confidence
ROBUST — Plain rolling correlation of daily moves, on arctanh-transformed values; gold is the official LBMA price, the real yield is the 10y TIPS (DFII10, 2003+). Positive co-movement is the debasement/sovereign-risk side — the tie to the Crisis-Ratio thesis.