The dollar and Treasury auction demand are both confidence gauges. When the dollar falls AND auctions are bid weakly, the world is stepping back from US assets at once — the loss-of-confidence signature.
STRAINED z = 1.05 PLAUSIBLE as of 2026-05-28
toward the strained side — above ~85% of its history
The dysfunction statistic, full history
Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction — the
relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.
The two series it watches
DTWEXBGS
2006
high 130.04 · low 85.60 · now 118.88 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
AUCTION_BTC
1994
high 4.64 · low 1.33 · now 2.52 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is scored
Correlation today (r)
0.2742
z vs. its own history
1.05 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation — effective N ≈ 39.8 independent windows (from 1,618 overlapping readings)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE — Bid-to-cover is sparse (auction-dated) and the correlation cannot separate both-weak from both-strong — disclosed; the strain reading is corroborated by the partner level tiles (the dollar, F12; auction demand, F10), not taken alone.